Evaluación de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de fuegos en rodales de Pinus pinaster en Portugal
Resumen
El articulo presenta un modelo para evaluar la probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios en masas regulares y purasde Pinus pinaster en Portugal. Se desarrolla un modelo basado en datos de inventario fácilmente disponibles de talforma que pueda ser una herramienta útil para los gestores forestales. Los datos proceden de los dos Inventarios Nacionalesde Portugal (NFI) y de los datos de los parámetros de incendios forestales durante los años 1998-2004 y de 2006 a 2007.Se ha utilizado un modelo de regresión logística binarias utilizando datos biométricos del NFI. Los datos biométricosincluyen indicadores que puedan ser cambios en las operaciones prescritas en los planes forestales. Los resultadosmuestran que la probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios en un rodal aumenta en rodales localizados en grandes pendientesy con una carga alta de matorrales, mientras que decrece con la precipitación y con el área basimétrica. Estosresultados son instrumentos para evaluar el impacto de las opciones de gestión forestal en la probabilidad de incendiosayudando por tanto a los gestores a reducir el riesgo de incendio.
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